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Practically Speaking

Kyle and her husband moved to Brookfield in 1986. She became active in local politics and started blogging in 2004. Her focus is primarily on local issues but often includes state and national topics, too. Kyle looks at things from the taxpayers’ perspective in a creative, yet down to earth way, addressing them from a practical point of view.

It is not over yet

By Kyle Prast
Wednesday, Oct 15 2008, 06:08 PM

I remember during the 2004 election, it seemed George Bush was doomed. The results were different however: Zogby got it right. So this time around, I don't pay much attention to the other polls, which often are stacked with more Democrats than Republicans, I just check Zogby. Today, Obama is down .8% and McCain up 2.4% from yesterday; they are 3.8 % apart. Rasmussen is another poll that is respected. It shows a 5% lead for Obama nationally.

Considering that Obama is outspending McCain at least 5 to 1, you would think Obama would be way ahead, not just around 4% nationally. The bad economy helps Obama more than it helps McCain. Add to that the lack of coverage by mainstream media to report anything controversial about Obama and it makes McCain's down by 4% look more positive.

It will be a nail biter, but remember the July Leader Lost in 6 of Last 9 Competitive U.S. Elections

If you look at the Gallup polls from past elections, you see that they are all over the map prior to the elections. Often there was a dramatic shift in the last week or so. It makes you wonder if the campaign were held a week later, would the winner have been different?

Could it be that there are only so many Obama votes out there? Enter ACORN. If Obama Is Really So Far Ahead, Why Does ACORN Have to Cheat? Good question. The ACORN fraud definitely adds another layer to the question of who will win on Nov. 4th. If Obama wins, will we ever know that he really won? 

The mainstream media wants to defeat you. Remember that when you look at the polls. It is not over until it's over--and that is 20 days from now.

Please, comment content should relate to the subject of the post. Although I try to respond to many, do not interpret my lack of a response as agreement.

Links: 

 

counter hit xanga

Brookfield7, Fairly Conservative, Betterbrookfield, Jay Weber, Mark Levin,  Vicki Mckenna

 

Comments

contrarian   

You are right--it ain't over 'til its over.  You are also right that Zogby has a a good reputation.  A careful look at Zogby down the stretch run on 2004 (www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm) shows that they had Bush even or up on most days.  The consistent gap for McCain (back to 5% by Zogby today) along with the challenges of the electoral map leaves McCain in a very deep hole.

I don't know if Obama is measuring drapes for the Oval Office or not, but the most important remaining questions for this election will be 1) how big is Obama's win, and how much mandate does he get, and 2) what does the house and senate look like.  Obama holds the high ground in these final weeks, he looks more presidential than McCain, and far less shrill than Palin.  It is said that a presidency starts with how you ran your candidacy.  Obama has conquered many challenges, and his likely presidency is off to a good start.


October 16, 2008 10:10 AM

mikeyd   

Yes, Zogby is a classically good poll source. Less than 3 weeks to go thankfully.

Obama is slowly and steadily pulling away with it based on Zogby's last week and month (Obama up to 49%, McCain at 43.5%). They have Obama over the 270 electoral count also. You mentioned 6 of 9 candidate poll leaders in July lost the eventual elections, what about leaders at the end of September and October, and what if they have a 5% lead or better at the time?  The 5% can change of course, but that is a pretty big lead, 1-2% would be a very tight contest in my view, 3-4% close but doubtful, I agree with Contrarian that 5% amounts to a deep hole.

This polling and review site (link below) has a good review of spending in various closely contended states, not quite the 5 to 1 mentioned by Kyle, maybe 2 to 1 overall, but based on great grass roots funding Obama will probably increase that differential even more in the upcoming weeks.  They give a good review of many polls and constantly update current issues that affect the campaign in a fairly straight forward review.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Senator Obama is doing a great job of taking the high road, which hopefully will translate into a better political environment after the election than we have had over the more recent elections. There will always be the 30% on either side that feel slighted, but the 40% are consistently impressed with Obama, his answers and ideas, based on national debate reviews.

October 16, 2008 11:53 AM

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