The Forum

Large majority of Shorewood residents favor shared services

Steve Koczela — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 18:28:00 GMT

As our Village government searches for cost savings in these difficult economic times, residents are open to sharing services with surrounding municipalities. Top targets for sharing include Health Services (77% favor sharing), Building Inspection (73%), Municipal Court (69%), Public Works (66%), and Senior Services (65%).

As residents stay in Shorewood longer, they become more and more open to sharing services. Eight in ten (81%) of residents who have lived in Shorewood 16 or more years favor sharing Health Services, and 74% favor sharing Municipal Court Services. Among newer residents (5 years or less in Shorewood), these numbers are 72% and 60%, respectively. In many cases, newer residents and renters have no opinion on sharing services, since a renter is unlike to interact with Building Inspection or the DPW, for instance.

Grabbing the third rail of Shorewood politics, Library Services, 58% favor a sharing arrangement, including 64% of homeowners. Interest in sharing library services increases among longer term residents, from 56% of newer residents (< 5 yrs) in favor of sharing, to 62% among long term residents (16 yrs+). While these numbers are lower than those who favor sharing Health Services and Municipal Court, they are still surprisingly high, given the battles we went through to get our current Library built.

Half of all new Shorewood families are renters

Steve Koczela — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 20:59:37 GMT

Efforts to attract new families to our Village should be focused half and half on renters and homeowners, according to new data from the 2008 Community Survey. According to the survey, about half (49%) of all families with children who have lived in Shorewood for 5 years or less rent rather than own their home. In total, 52% of this group live in single family homes, 34% in duplexes, 12% in apartment buildings, and 2% in condos. As residents stay in Shorewood for longer periods of time, they are more likely to become homeowners. By the time families with children have been in Shorewood for 16 years, nearly 9 in 10 (87%) are homeowners.

I bring this up because the Village Board tends to focus on policies to promote homeownership for young families as a way to boost the number of school-age children. Think Marketing Shorewood (focused on real estate agents and homebuyers) and the Neighborhood Initiative for the most recent examples. It must be mentioned here that school enrollment has increased recently, according the Village Board, so some part of the Board's policies are working. I also need to emphasize that I am not implying there is anything wrong with the goal of bringing new homeowners with children to the Village. However, if our overarching goal is to boost enrollment, there is more that can be done by expanding our efforts to include renter families.

Shorewood housing options attract residents at different life stages

Steve Koczela — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 22:56:53 GMT

After posting the dataset last week, I started looking at the data to see what it can tell us beyond what has already been reported. I started looking at our housing options and who lives there, and here is what I found. There are distinct demographic groups living in our four housing options: single family homes, condos, duplexes, and apartment buildings.

Apartments. This group tends to be newer and lower income residents. Almost half (46%) have been in Shorewood less than 5 years, 76% make less than $50,000 a year. Apartment dwellers are less likely to be families; 65% are single-adult households, and only 9% have children in the household.
Duplexes. This appears to be the next step after apartment living in Shorewood. Duplex dwellers are less likely to live alone (39%), more likely to have children (29%), and have a higher income profile (40% make under $50K) than is the case for apartment households.
Single Family Homes. This group has been here the longest, with 55% living in Shorewood 16 or more years. Eight in ten (82%) of these households have two or more adults, 50% have children, and 30% have 2 or more children. Their income profile is much higher than the renter groups, with 60% making $100,000 or more.
Condominiums. With people at both ends of the spectrum on income and length of residency, this group appears to be a mix of young people and retirees. Nearly six in ten (57%) Shorewood condo households contain at least one retiree. This number surprised me, so if you have a thought on why it is, please post a comment. Could it be the Eastwood condos?

New Community Survey Results

Steve Koczela — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 16:18:00 GMT

I have created a set of crosstabs that show the effect of re-weighting the data with renters represented in their proper proportion of households (just over half the sample).

DOWNLOAD CROSSTABS.

This reweighting by own vs. rent also brings down overall income levels, since Shorewood renters have a lower income profile than homeowners. I created these crosstabs relatively quickly (yes, I have a day job), and it is possible I made an error or two, so let me know if you see anything that does not seem right. I see this as a completely "open source" project (the data is a public record), so let me know if you want to the SPSS files, or the Excel version of the crosstabs. I am open to suggestions, revisions, criticism, and personal insults, if you would like to participate in this.

Why, Steve? Is this some sort of methodological crusade you are on? Some nutty academic exercise?

Not at all. There is nothing wrong with using unweighted data, especially since part of the intent of the 2008 Community Survey was to track the changes in opinions over time. However, in this case, using raw responses has the additional effect of discounting the importance of renter households. I believe it is important to look at Village opinion with renters' opinions given its proper value, proportional to their share of the households in our Village.

There is a lot of interesting data in here, which could make for a great deal of interesting discussion.

As a side note, I weighted to a count of 600, which means renters are weighted at about 1. Homeowners are weighted down to the proper proportion within a weighted sample of 600. There is a lot of missing data in individual surveys, so you will notice that the weighted counts bounce around, and never quite reach 600.

Sunrise development cancelled

Steve Koczela — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 23:55:00 GMT

JSOnline is reporting that the Sunrise Senior Living development that was planning at the Went End of Capitol Dr. has been cancelled. Below is the full press release from the Village.

Press Release – Sunrise Development

November 14, 2008 - Sunrise Senior Living is not exercising their option to proceed with their planned assisted living development in Shorewood.

They were to have constructed and operated an 83-unit facility at the Capitol Drive site previously occupied by the Riverbrook Restaurant and Sherburn Place Apartments.

A company official cited current economic conditions – specifically, the inability to obtain capital - as the reason for their decision. They indicated that they have canceled other similar projects.

Sunrise had previously acquired the land and associated zoning needed for this development, and indicated that they are currently attempting to find a purchaser.

A new look at the Community Survey

Steve Koczela — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 18:46:00 GMT

I received the raw data from CUIR, and reweighted it to account for renters (52%) vs homeowners (48%). This also brought income statistics closer to what is likely the real breakdown, since renters tend to be much lower income (61% under $50K) than homeowners (12% under $50K). I am going to create and post a set of crosstabs, so any of you can look at whatever statistics interest you.

There are a lot of interesting numbers to look at, many of which could be valuable to those shaping policy initiatives in the years ahead. Some confirm what you would expect, others are more surprising. Here are a few examples.

Those who live on an alley are less satisfied with the DPW (40% satisfied) than those who do not live on an alley (54%).
Higher income residents are more likely than lower income residents to favor maintaining services with tax increases.
Among single family home dwellers, 7 in 10 (70%) are satisfied with the parking situations, compared to just 33% of apartment dwellers.
Garbage can flyers do not reach apartment or condo dwellers (reach 1 in 4), but are among the most effective ways of communicating to single family home dwellers (reach 9 of 10).
One in three households with children in Shorewood are renters. Keep this in mind next time the debate comes up about maintaining and increasing school enrollment.

If you are a stats geek like me and would like the raw SPSS data file or syntax files, let me know, and I will send them to you. Unfortunately, the blogging engine appears to prevent posting SPSS files, or I would just put them here.

Shorewood Community Survey undercounts low income residents, renters

Steve Koczela — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 15:47:00 GMT

The 2008 Shorewood Community Survey represents a less than complete look at the opinions of Shorewood residents, undercounting low income residents and renters. As such, any guidance drawn from these survey results when developing policy initiatives will automatically be skewed toward higher income residents and homeowners. The methodology section of the survey contains the following excerpt, which outlines the demographic makeup of survey respondents.

"Almost half (49%) have lived in Shorewood for 16 years or more. The average household size is 2.33 people per household. Nineteen percent of all households were retired. Over 80% own their own home, and the majority (64%) lives in single-family homes. Compared with Census 2000 findings – and similar to 2003 results – the respondents tended to have higher household incomes than the average Shorewood."

The home ownership statistics jump out immediately as being skewed. The 2000 Census said about 52% of the units in the Village are rental units. This undercounting of renters also skews the average household size, which is larger for homeowners (2.51) than for renters (1.69).

Ways for adjusting for data bias include data weighting, or oversampling populations who have lower response rates. These methods can ensure the respondent pool makes up an accurate snapshot of the Village Population, and can accurately inform decision makers on the opinions of Village residents. When I inquired into why this was done, the representative from the UWM Center for Urban Initiatives and Research (CUIR), who conducted the survey, said the intent was to mirror the 2003 Village survey, where data was also not weighted, and where results also skewed toward higher income residents.

There is value in tracking opinions over time, as was done here. However, this methodological choice makes it difficult or impossible to draw conclusions about Village-wide opinions on any item where opinions differ between income levels or home ownership status. You can still look at opinions within subgroups, but statements that begin with "residents believe..." or "overall, Shorewood residents rated..." should be taken with a grain of salt. CUIR notes this limitation within the body of the report.

"...The survey respondents should not be construed as a representative sample of Shorewood’s population. In particular, homeowners and higher income households are over-represented among survey respondents than the households found in the Village of Shorewood. However, it may be interesting to note that income measures are not standardized, so it is entirely possible that both survey respondent and Shorewood resident populations are becoming increasingly wealthier, especially compared with 2000 Census figures."

I have requested the raw data, and will look at a few re-weighting options when I receive it.

Was it a good year for roses?

Steve Koczela — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 05:30:51 GMT

I haven't had a chance to go to any meetings yet, so I am afraid I have nothing interesting to say. But I did notice, when I got back, that my roses seem to have grown huge, despite receiving no care at all this summer/fall. Was this an unusually good year for growing roses in WI?

Back in Shorewood

Steve Koczela — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 22:56:51 GMT

I will be up to my usual tricks again shortly!

For now, Happy Veterans Day to all.

Headed to DC until November

Steve Koczela — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 01:26:40 GMT

My blog will be quiet for a while.

I have accepted a temporary position with a company called "Brilliant Corners Research & Strategy", a Washington DC political polling and strategy company associated with the Obama campaign. I currently work in marketing research, so the job I will be doing is very similar to what I already do in terms of the technical skill requirements. The engagement lasts until November of this year, at which point I intend to return to Shorewood.

I am always interested in what is going on in Shorewood, so please do not hesitate to email me with interesting Village happenings. Until then, take care and be safe.

D2D Chair Sean Cummings appointed to Trustee position

Steve Koczela — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 22:57:11 GMT

This Wednesday, the Village Board appointed Drive to Distinction (D2D) Chair Sean Cummings to the Trustee position vacated by Michael Phinney. Now Trustee Cummings previously petitioned the Village Board for a $600,000 grant for the D2D athletic field renovation. The Board eventually approved the request, at a lower amount of $465,000.

His term will run through April, 2010. A total of 11 other applicants put in their names for the open position.

According to a recent ShorewoodNOW article, the others who applied include Mark Clingaman, Daniel Daemmrich, Peter Grimes, William Kohl, Patrick Linnane, Brady McMonigal, Tim Ryan, Ryan Scott, Brad Simenz, Niki Skinner and John Toutenhoofd.

Why doesn't anybody run for Trustee?

Steve Koczela — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 12:09:00 GMT

I saw with a mix of disappointment and interest that 12 people had put in their names for the open Village Trustee position. Disappointment because at some level, I find it troubling that so many are willing to apply for the position, but so few are willing to run for it in an election. Interest because there are some names on the list who are new to Village political life. Hopefully, they will continue to participate after the appointment process is over.

The last Trustee election was unopposed, but now we have 12 people lining up for an open seat. The election before that had 3 candidates. As soon as it was over, we had 9 people lining up for Guy Johnson's open seat. Why do so few run for the office of Trustee, but so many seek appointment to it?

Guns drawn in Lake Drive police incident

Steve Koczela — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 01:43:37 GMT

Passers-by are reporting seeing Shorewood Police Officers on the east side of Lake Drive this morning with their weapons drawn. According to the account, two officers were pointing their weapons at a man lying face down on the ground.

If you saw this incident, or have more information, please email me or leave a comment.

Capitol Drive options presented to community

Steve Koczela — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 00:33:00 GMT

I attended a meeting last week on the various options for rebuilding Capitol Drive. There are two main options, one with bike lanes, and one without. In designing the options, the engineers considered tradeoffs between bike lanes, driving lanes, sidewalks, trees, medians, turn lanes, and other design components. Needless to say, bike lanes change the amount of space available for other components.

For more information on the two working designs, visit the Capitol Drive reconstruction information website.

Rumors have been circulating that up to 50 trees may be removed in the course of this reconstruction no matter which option they go with. In viewing the website, I do not count this number when viewing the various options. If anyone can tell us conclusively either way, please go ahead and post a comment.

Shorewood gassed by low flying plane

Steve Koczela — Thu, 29 May 2008 12:34:00 GMT

Does this seem odd to anyone else? (hat tip, Jim)

Low-flying plane spraying for gypsy moths

THURSDAY, May 29, 2008, 6:44 a.m.
By Linda Spice

Callers expressing concern about a low-flying plane over Shorewood and the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee about 6 a.m. today learned from Milwaukee County Sheriff's dispatchers that the pilot is spraying for gypsy moths in the area.

"There is no cause for alarm," a dispatcher told deputies on the road over the scanner this morning, noting television news reports of what was occurring.

Sheriff's dispatch raised concerns that neither the department nor Milwaukee police were informed of the plane's intentions and found themselves with citizen phone calls questioning what was happening. They received information from TV choppers in the air this morning but were attempting to get more details from airport officials.

The plane this morning is moving further south toward the downtown Milwaukee area, according to the sheriff's office.

Johnson to seek Wasserman Assembly Seat

Steve Koczela — Sat, 24 May 2008 20:41:24 GMT

Shorewood Village President Guy Johnson will be running for Rep. Sheldon Wasserman's open WI State Assembly seat this fall. According to the WI State Elections Board website, Johnson has filed papers to run in the election as a Democrat. The current slate of candidates includes 5 Democrats and 1 Republican.

Wasserman is vacating his seat to challenge Alberta Darling for her State Senate seat.

Board outlines process for appointing replacement Trustee

Steve Koczela — Wed, 07 May 2008 23:09:03 GMT

At this Monday’s Meeting, the Village Board decided to appoint a Village Trustee to fill the seat vacated by Michael Phinney. Other options would have been to hold the seat vacant until a special election could be held, or for the duration of the unexpired term.

The appointment process for the new Trustee will be identical to what was done in 2006 for Trustee Dawn Anderson. Anderson was appointed to fill the balance of then Trustee Guy Johnson’s term after his election to Village President.

An application process will be open to interested and eligible Shorewood residents. The process will include a questionnaire, interviews, and then a vote by the board. Last time, the questionnaire included several open ended questions, as well as an attached resume. Following the application process, the Board will conduct 30 minute interviews of all candidates at a Village Board meeting in June. The Board will then vote on the applicants and make their choice that same evening as the interviews.

Interested residents should call the Village Manager's office at (414) 847-2700 for more information. The application forms will be posted on the Village Website in the near future.

Board approves $26,000 in new consultant contracts

Steve Koczela — Tue, 06 May 2008 22:41:37 GMT

At last night’s meeting, the board approved two new consulting projects worth $26,000.

The first ($16,000) is for a plan related to bluff improvements near the Sunrise Facility. While the details of the study were not at all clear to me, it has something to do with planning for bluff stabilization and foot/bike bath construction. The purpose of the study was similarly confusing to the members of the board, prompting 30+ minutes of discussion between members of the Board and Village Manager Chris Swartz. Vote passed: 6-0.
The second ($10,000) is for a consultant to create a village-wide plan for bicycle traffic. This study is prompted by the upcoming changes to Capitol Drive, and the desire to study the possibility of including bike lanes. This study may not actually occur, since the vote yesterday was to authorize the Village Manager to commission such a study, if necessary, rather than a vote to make the study happen. Vote passed: 6-0.

Streetlights off in NW corner

Steve Koczela — Tue, 06 May 2008 03:02:27 GMT

A number of streets over here have been in complete darkness for the last few nights. Driving home tonight, I noticed the lights were out on Congress, Kensington, and the 4400 block of Woodruff.

Political Map of Shorewood

Steve Koczela — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 15:46:46 GMT

I mentioned in a previous post that Shorewood shows a slight but distinct political pattern in terms of the relative likelihood to vote for conservative or liberal candidates. I checked a few of the recent election results which are shown below. Although the pattern is not perfect, there is generally about a 10-15% difference between the most liberal wards (7-8), and the most conservative (11-12). The chart below shows the % of the vote that each candidate received in the Feb and April 2008 election cycles.

Ward Number BUTLER TAYLOR OBAMA

Wards 7-8 78% 68% 63%

Wards 3-4 72% 59% 61%

Wards 5-6 73% 57% 61%

Wards 9-10 69% 57% 57%

Wards 1-2 71% 56% 55%

Wards 11-12 68% 53% 54%

As a side note, the wards on the bottom of the list are West of Oakland Ave. (View Ward Map)

Ward Number	BUTLER	TAYLOR	OBAMA
Wards 7-8	78%	68%	63%
Wards 3-4	72%	59%	61%
Wards 5-6	73%	57%	61%
Wards 9-10	69%	57%	57%
Wards 1-2	71%	56%	55%
Wards 11-12	68%	53%	54%